In a stunning political twist, French President Emmanuel Macron faced a significant setback as his party fell to second place in the European Parliament elections in France, with the two main far-right parties collectively garnering close to 40% of the vote.

 A Bold Challenge and a Daring Response

Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally party, seized the moment on election night to call for the dissolution of the French national parliament, interpreting his party’s success as a mandate for change. “The President of the Republic cannot remain deaf to the message sent by the French this evening,” Bardella declared to his supporters.

In a move that surprised many, Macron took Bardella’s challenge head-on. He announced a snap national election for the end of June, framing it as a decisive contest between his pro-European, centrist, and pro-Ukrainian vision and the far-right’s anti-immigration, populist, and hard-line law-and-order stance.

“The extreme right is both the impoverishment of the French and the downgrading of our country. So, at the end of this day, I cannot act as if nothing had happened,” Macron stated in a televised address, highlighting the stakes of the upcoming election.

 Rallying the Forces Against the Far Right

Macron aims to unite the right and the left against the far right, but the path to such a coalition is fraught with challenges. With the first round of voting scheduled in just 20 days, there is scant time to forge alliances from the diverse landscape of France’s centrist and left-wing parties.

Still smarting from years of protests against Macron’s pro-business policies and internally divided over issues like the Gaza conflict, the left shows little enthusiasm for aligning with the President. The last dissolution of the National Assembly in 1997 by Jacques Chirac, which resulted in a leftist victory, casts a historical shadow over Macron’s bold move.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Séjourné hinted at strategic concessions, suggesting that Macron’s Renaissance party might withhold candidates in certain districts to support potential allies. “Reasonable people with whom we can work” is how Séjourné described the potential partners in a Monday morning interview with Radio France.

However, key leftist players appear resistant. Manon Aubry, leader of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) European list, which placed fourth in the European vote, firmly stated, “It is now clear that the country wants to turn the page on the Macron era. And this page must not be turned with the National Rally and the far right.”

LFI’s figurehead Jean-Luc Mélenchon echoed this sentiment, dismissing the idea of a hurried coalition with other leftist parties, further complicating Macron’s efforts.

Macron’s current predicament is a stark contrast to his 2017 landslide victory over Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate. His tenure has been marred by significant challenges, including the “yellow vest” protests, a strict Covid-19 regime, and highly unpopular pension reforms.

Lacking an absolute majority in parliament since the beginning of his second term in 2022, Macron has often had to invoke article 49.3 of the constitution to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote, a tactic that has only fueled further resentment and division.

The snap election is a high-stakes gamble for Macron, potentially reshaping the political landscape of France. As the nation heads towards this critical juncture, the outcome will determine whether Macron can reassert his authority or if the far right will capitalize on the growing discontent to gain unprecedented power.

Dueling Visions: Macron’s Gamble Against the Far Right

The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, the long-standing figurehead of France’s anti-immigration movement, currently holds 88 seats in the 577-seat French parliament, compared to Macron’s bloc’s 250 seats. In theory, the upcoming election is far from a two-horse race, yet it unmistakably frames a showdown between Macron’s centrist ideals and the far right’s populist agenda.

The far-right’s appeal, particularly its staunch anti-immigration stance, resonates strongly on the European stage where EU lawmakers have struggled with illegal immigration. This issue has galvanized support for Le Pen’s party, making the election a critical test of France’s political direction.

Macron, aware of the growing influence of the far right, has called for a snap national election at the end of June. This bold move sets up a critical contest between his pro-European, centrist, and pro-Ukrainian policies versus the far-right’s rhetoric.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire acknowledged some responsibility for the election results, emphasizing that the campaign will be “project against project.” He described the call for elections as a “bet of confidence” in the French people, trusting they would resist political extremes.

France’s voting system could work in Macron’s favour. In the first round, multiple parties compete to meet a minimum vote threshold. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, the second round on July 7 will feature the highest-polling candidates. This system often sees voters from various political stripes band together to oppose far-right candidates, as has historically prevented far-right victories at the presidential level.

The outcomes of the June 30 and July 7 votes will define Macron’s remaining three years in power. If Macron’s party secures a majority, he will push forward with his reform agenda, including changes to end-of-life care and the education system, giving him a clear mandate for his domestic and international policies.

Macron has highlighted the dangers posed by the rise of nationalists and demagogues, emphasizing the threat to both France and Europe’s stability and France’s role on the global stage.

 The Risk of a Lame-Duck Presidency

If Macron’s bloc fails to achieve the 289-seat threshold for an absolute majority but remains the largest, his government will continue to struggle to pass legislation. The far-right’s replication of its European success on the national stage could force Macron to appoint a far-right prime minister, likely Jordan Bardella, leading to a “cohabitation” where Macron handles international and defence issues while the domestic agenda is dominated by the far-right.

Marine Le Pen has made it clear that her party is ready to govern, setting the stage for a potential contest in the 2027 presidential election. In a polarized political landscape, the call for cross-party cooperation, as voiced by Yaël Braun-Pivet, speaker of France’s National Assembly, seems increasingly challenging.

Macron’s presidency has been marked by bold political manoeuvres, but the upcoming election represents a high-stakes gamble. His legacy could either be the reinforcement of centrist politics or the dramatic shift that allowed the far right to gain unprecedented power in France.